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Stake Crash

Stake logoStake· Crash game

FairnessProvably fair
Stake Crash cover art by Stake
Illustration, not data

Specs

FairnessProvably fair
Lab statusNot started
Provider
Stake logoStake
Category
Crash game
Lab status
Not started
Rounds counted
None yet
Provider claim
Provider claimNo stated return on record yet
Last round recorded
No rounds in yet

Past rounds describe behaviour. They do not predict the next round.

Short answer

No bot can predict Stake Crash: the Stake Crash game is designed so each round's crash point is independent of the last, and the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. We have no first-hand record of the stated Stake Crash RTP yet. Lab measurement has not started yet.

Lab measurement not started

Collection has not started. No rounds have been counted.

rounds needed before any figure publishes
10,000 rounds needed before any figure publishes

Published here once the sample is large enough

  • Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out), median crash, instant-crash rate, highest multiplier
  • The last 20 rounds, as history
  • Crash multiplier distribution in eight bands
  • Survival curve against the provider claim
  • RTP at five cash-out targets
  • Crash DNA

Myth checks

What players believe about Stake Crash, what the game's design and maths say, and what the lab has counted so far.

  1. Can Stake Crash be predicted?

    A bot, app or signal group can predict the next result.

    Not true

    No. Games are designed so each round is independent of the last; the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. Predictor apps show their hits and hide their misses; some are marketed alongside referral links.

    How the lab will test it Lag-1 autocorrelation of consecutive outcomes and the hit rate of any published 'signal' against recorded rounds.

    Read the full check

  2. Are there hot hours or patterns in Stake Crash?

    Games pay more at certain hours (jam gacor) or follow readable patterns (pola).

    Not true

    No. The game does not know the time or your history. Any hour or pattern that looks hot is the normal clustering of random results; it should not repeat on fresh data, and the lab will test this.

    How the lab will test it Outcome distribution by hour-of-day compared with a chi-square test across hours.

    Read the full check

  3. Does doubling after a loss work in Stake Crash?

    Doubling the bet after each loss guarantees a profit.

    Not true

    No. Doubling wins small amounts often and loses everything occasionally. A long enough losing streak always arrives, and the next bet then exceeds the bankroll or the table limit. The house edge stays the same on every bet.

    How the lab will test it Exact loss-streak probabilities plus seeded simulation against recorded outcome frequencies.

    Read the full check

  4. Is Stake Crash rigged?

    The game is rigged against players beyond its stated return.

    Open: to be measured

    This is what the lab measures. Every game has a built-in house edge; the question is whether actual results match the provider's stated return. We publish measured return with its margin of error so you can see the answer, not take ours.

    How the lab will test it Measured RTP with a 95% confidence interval compared with the provider claim.

    Read the full check

Rules & math

A multiplier rises from 1.00x until the round crashes at a random point. Cash out before the crash to receive your stake times the multiplier at that moment; still in at the crash, the stake is lost.

How Stake Crash works

Stake Crash is an in-house crash game run by the Stake casino itself rather than bought from a game studio. It sits in Stake's "Originals" set, alongside its own dice, plinko and mines games.

Each round, a multiplier climbs from 1.00x until the round crashes. A player who cashes out before the crash receives the stake times the multiplier shown at that moment; a player still in at the crash loses the stake. Many players share the same round, so the crash point is the same for everyone at the table.

How a round is fixed in advance

Stake describes Crash as provably fair. Round results are committed by hash before they are played, and the inputs behind each result are revealed afterwards, so anyone can hash what was revealed and compare it with the commitment shown earlier. A result cannot be swapped once bets are in.

Because each result is fixed by that commitment, nothing in earlier rounds says anything about the next one. A run of low crashes does not make a high one due.

What the lab measures

Once rounds are recorded, this page publishes the measured return at a fixed cash-out with its 95% interval, the share of rounds reaching each multiplier, and the instant-crash rate, each with its sample size and time. We have no first-hand record of the return Stake states for Crash yet, so this page shows no claim figure; once confirmed, it will appear labelled as a provider claim. See how we count and what provably fair means.

Fairness

Provably fairThe provider publishes how a revealed round can be recomputed from its seeds.

Before play the provider publishes a hash of its server seed. Once the seed is revealed, our tool checks that it matches that commitment. Recomputing the round itself follows the provider's own published steps.

Check a hash commitment

How the badges are assigned

Questions

Prediction, patterns, doubling and rigging are answered in the myth checks above.

How often does Stake Crash crash at 1.00x (instant crash)?
An instant crash is a round that ends below 1.01x, shown as 1.00x, so every cash-out target loses. The lab publishes how often Stake Crash does it, with the sample size, the time and a 95% interval, once the game passes 10,000 rounds. Lab measurement has not started yet. See how the lab counts it.
How often does Stake Crash reach 2x and 10x?
The lab publishes the share of Stake Crash rounds that reach 2x and 10x, with the sample size, the time and a 95% interval, once the game passes 10,000 rounds. Lab measurement has not started yet.
What is the highest multiplier recorded in Stake Crash?
The lab publishes the highest multiplier it has recorded for Stake Crash, with the sample size and the time, once the game passes 10,000 rounds. Lab measurement has not started yet.
What is the RTP of Stake Crash?
We have no first-hand record of a stated return for Stake Crash yet, so this page shows none. Once the lab has counted enough rounds, the measured return appears here with its 95% interval. Lab measurement has not started yet.
How do I cite the Stake Crash data?
Use the reference under Data & citation on this page. Once a figure is published it names the metric, its value, the 95% interval, the exact number of rounds and the UTC as-of time, with the methodology version, the citation id and the page link. The id names a game and a month, not a frozen snapshot, so always quote the figure with its n and as-of. Published figures and fingerprints are under CC BY 4.0. Each UTC day of raw records is sealed with a published SHA-256 fingerprint, so a file released later can be checked against it.

Data & citation

Daily fingerprints

No sealed day for this game yet. Its first day appears here once it is sealed, after 00:30 UTC.

Raw per-round rows are not published for download. Raw rows are released on request to logged-in users through the data page (Telegram login), up to 5 requests in any 24 hours; a file sent for a day matches its published SHA-256. Raw data on request

Citation id
cw:stake-crash:2026-10:v1
Cite as
Clash Watchdog (2026). Stake Crash: measured behaviour, claims and myths. cw:stake-crash:2026-10:v1. https://clashwatchdog.com/games/stake-crash
Licence
CC BY 4.0. Cite Clash Watchdog and link the dataset.
Methodology
lab-v2.0 (site), no feed yet (feed). How we count