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Balloon X

SmartSoft logoSmartSoft· Crash game

FairnessCertified RNG

No player-verifiable seed or hash, so it can only be checked statistically, by counting rounds.

Balloon X cover art by SmartSoft
Illustration, not data

Specs

FairnessCertified RNG
Lab statusMeasured

No player-verifiable seed or hash, so it can only be checked statistically, by counting rounds.

Provider
SmartSoft logoSmartSoft
Category
Crash game
Provider claim
96.5% to 99.3%
Rounds counted
26,444 rounds
Last round recorded
17 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC
Lab status
Measured
Rounds counted
26,444rounds
Provider claim
Provider claim
What is Provider claim?

Provider claim

The return the game provider states. We show it as a claim and compare it with what we count; we do not repeat it as fact.

96.5 to 99.3%

Provider source

Last round recorded
17 Oct 2026, 10:35 UTC

Past rounds describe behaviour. They do not predict the next round.

Short answer

No bot can predict Balloon X: the Balloon X game is designed so each round's crash point is independent of the last, and the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. The provider's stated Balloon X RTP, a long-run return, is 96.5% to 99.3%. Across 26,444 recorded rounds, as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC, the observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out) was 96.1% (95% CI 94.9% to 97.3%).

In 26,444 recorded Balloon X rounds (as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC): 2.0% ended below 1.01x (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%); 9.4% reached 10x (95% CI 9.1% to 9.8%); the highest multiplier recorded was 25,000x† (observed, no interval).

Core stats

Each figure carries its sample size, its time and its 95% interval. Median and highest multiplier are facts about the sample, so they carry no interval.

Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)
What is Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)?

Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)

If every round were cashed out automatically at 2x, this is the long-run return measured in the current sample. With a small sample it can differ noticeably from the theoretical value.

96.1%

n
26,444
95% CI
94.9% to 97.3%
as of
17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC
Median crash
What is Median crash?

Median crash

Half of the results fall below this multiplier and half above it. Compared with the highest multiplier, the median is closer to what a typical round is like.

1.92x

n
26,444
as of
17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC
95% CI
Observed in sample · no interval
Instant-crash rate
What is Instant crash rate?

Instant crash rate

The share of rounds that crash at a very low multiplier. It describes the risk in the low tail.

2.0%

n
26,444
95% CI
1.8% to 2.2%
as of
17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC
Highest multiplier
What is Highest multiplier?

Highest multiplier

The highest multiplier seen in the sample. It does not make a similar multiplier any more likely in the next round.

25,000x

n
26,444
as of
17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC
95% CI
Observed in sample · no interval
Sample size
What is Sample size?

Sample size

How many recorded rounds this figure is based on. The more rounds, the narrower the interval around a measured value.

26,444rounds

as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC

Return per round
What is 95% interval?

95% interval

The range that would contain the true long-run value in 95 of 100 repeated samples of this size. It narrows as more rounds are counted.

96.1%

n
26,444
95% CI
94.9% to 97.3%
as of
17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC

Recent rounds

History, not a forecast. Times approximate.

Newest first, 10:35 UTC back to 10:29 UTC

  1. 5.24x
  2. 1.25x
  3. 1.36x
  4. 1.00x
  5. 27.89x
  6. 1.20x
  7. 2.79x
  8. 1.25x
  9. 1.44x
  10. 1.10x
  11. 1.05x
  12. 2.25x
  13. 6.49x
  14. 1.67x
  15. 3.13x
  16. 3.36x
  17. 17.66x
  18. 6.49x
  19. 1.17x
  20. 7.07x

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  • The last 500 recorded rounds of this game

Logging in uses Telegram. The conclusions on this page stay public without it.

Crash multiplier distribution

Where rounds ended, in eight bands. The first band is the instant crash: rounds that ended below 1.01x.

Log in free with Telegram to see the full data

Logging in uses Telegram. The conclusions on this page stay public without it.

Survival curve

The share of rounds that reached each multiplier before ending: RTP at t divided by t, measured at five targets.

RTP by cash-out target

The long-run return if every round were cashed out automatically at the same target.

Crash DNA

Five descriptive bands from the measured sample. A description of behaviour, not a score and not a recommendation.

Milestones

RTP @ 2x and the instant-crash rate at fixed round counts. The 95% interval narrows as rounds come in.

Balloon X: RTP @ 2x and the instant-crash rate at each milestone, with 95% intervals
MilestonePeriod (UTC)RTP @ 2x (95% CI)Instant crash (95% CI)
10,000 rounds 11 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 202696.1% 94.2% to 98.1%2.1% 1.8% to 2.4%
25,000 rounds 11 Oct 2026 – 17 Oct 202696.0% 94.8% to 97.3%2.0% 1.8% to 2.2%
All rounds so far 26,444 roundsas of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC96.1% 94.9% to 97.3%2.0% 1.8% to 2.2%

Drift check: starts once 30,000 rounds are in complete blocks of 5,000 (25,000 so far).

Each milestone is fixed once reached; later rounds only add new rows. Past rounds describe behaviour; they do not predict the next round.

Compare with other crash games

Monthly measured report: We counted 11,428 Balloon X rounds: measured RTP vs the 96.5% to 99.3% claim (Oct 2026)

Myth checks

What players believe about Balloon X, what the game's design and maths say, and what the lab has counted so far.

  1. Can Balloon X be predicted?

    A bot, app or signal group can predict the next result.

    Not true

    No. Games are designed so each round is independent of the last; the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. Predictor apps show their hits and hide their misses; some are marketed alongside referral links.

    How the lab will test it Lag-1 autocorrelation of consecutive outcomes and the hit rate of any published 'signal' against recorded rounds.

    Read the full check

  2. Are there hot hours or patterns in Balloon X?

    Games pay more at certain hours (jam gacor) or follow readable patterns (pola).

    Not true

    No. The game does not know the time or your history. Any hour or pattern that looks hot is the normal clustering of random results; it should not repeat on fresh data, and the lab will test this.

    How the lab will test it Outcome distribution by hour-of-day compared with a chi-square test across hours.

    Read the full check

  3. Is Balloon X rigged?

    The game is rigged against players beyond its stated return.

    Open: measured here

    This is what the lab measures. Every game has a built-in house edge; the question is whether actual results match the provider's stated return. We publish measured return with its margin of error so you can see the answer, not take ours.

    Measured so far (observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)): 96.1% (95% CI 94.9% to 97.3%) from 26,444 rounds as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC, against 96.5% to 99.3% provider claim.

    How the lab tests it Measured RTP with a 95% confidence interval compared with the provider claim.

    Read the full check

Rules & math

A multiplayer balloon game: the multiplier rises as the balloon inflates until it bursts at a random point; cash out before it does. The game collects automatically at 25,000x.

What the provider claim implies

If the stated return of 96.5% holds, the share of rounds that reach a multiplier t is 96.5% divided by t. These are consequences of the claim, not measurements.

Multiplier tRounds reaching t if the claim holds
1.5x64.3%
2x48.3%
3x32.2%
5x19.3%
10x9.7%

Fairness

Certified RNGA testing lab has certified the random number generator. Players cannot check a single round themselves; we measure the results over many rounds.

How the badges are assigned

Questions

Prediction, patterns, doubling and rigging are answered in the myth checks above.

How often does Balloon X crash at 1.00x (instant crash)?
Of 26,444 recorded Balloon X rounds (as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC), 2.0% ended below 1.01x, shown as 1.00x: the instant crash (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%). Past rounds describe behaviour. They do not predict the next round. See how the lab counts it.
How often does Balloon X reach 2x and 10x?
48.0% of recorded Balloon X rounds reached 2x (95% CI 47.4% to 48.6%, n 26,444) and 9.4% reached 10x (95% CI 9.1% to 9.8%, n 26,444), as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC. These are shares of past rounds, not odds for the next round.
What is the highest multiplier recorded in Balloon X?
25,000x†, the highest the lab has recorded for Balloon X in 26,444 rounds (as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC). † Observed in recorded rounds, so it has no interval. It is a record of past rounds, not a target or a prediction. Balloon X's documented cap is 25,000x, and the lab's own record has reached it.
Is Balloon X's 96.5% to 99.3% RTP real?
The provider states 96.5% to 99.3% (source: https://eu-server-w7.ssgportal.com/XGames/content/Scripts/Locale.ashx?locale=en&gamename=BalloonX). Measured by the lab on Balloon X at a fixed 2x cash-out: 96.1% (95% CI 94.9% to 97.3%) over 26,444 rounds, as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC. The interval and the claim overlap, so the count so far is consistent with it. That is not proof that the game is fair. The provider states its RTP as a range: highest at the lowest cash-out, and lower as the target rises. So the 2x figure is compared with the whole range, not its top. Observed RTP @ 2x is the return of a fixed 2x cash-out over this sample, not the game's overall RTP.
How do I cite the Balloon X data?
Use the reference under Data & citation on this page. Once a figure is published it names the metric, its value, the 95% interval, the exact number of rounds and the UTC as-of time, with the methodology version, the citation id and the page link. The id names a game and a month, not a frozen snapshot, so always quote the figure with its n and as-of. Published figures and fingerprints are under CC BY 4.0. Each UTC day of raw records is sealed with a published SHA-256 fingerprint, so a file released later can be checked against it.

Data & citation

Daily fingerprints

Each UTC day of this game's raw records is sealed after 00:30 UTC the next day, and its row count and SHA-256 fingerprint are published here. The last 30 sealed days are listed.

Day (UTC)RowsSHA-256
4,532113051d5115baaecabfd6db35ce0a7d86d4fd206ad8e7688a0802ab13611908a
4,5158713fa7ac9ffa08c08c385dc0987c8aa2abc3ab0255870289d40ec464cd1787e
4,6019205c688e7d837cd5a30d62e10ca83db304a71918342abaf659bd67ec72c08c3
4,54335face7770f21a961901e6210771368d131d7e96a43c1c57c2bdff9ef420b200
4,4833f7fb91a416a1a169a8974df0faf1f6f217c5d0b4dc50c2f5af744acef53fded
1,76949fb56967d7d27ac8be66fae2933a8347e864b39df0fa0ae4d17154e923e34d3

Raw per-round rows are not published for download. Raw rows are released on request to logged-in users through the data page (Telegram login), up to 5 requests in any 24 hours; a file sent for a day matches its published SHA-256. Raw data on request

Citation id
cw:balloon-x:2026-10:v1
Cite as
Clash Watchdog (2026). Balloon X (SmartSoft): Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out): 96.1% (95% CI 94.9% to 97.3%), n = 26,444 rounds, as of 17 Oct 2026, 10:36 UTC. Methodology lab-v2.0 (site), crashlab-v2 (feed). cw:balloon-x:2026-10:v1. https://clashwatchdog.com/games/balloon-xObserved RTP @ 2x is the return of a fixed 2x cash-out over this sample, not the game's overall RTP.
Licence
CC BY 4.0. Cite Clash Watchdog and link the dataset.
Methodology
lab-v2.0 (site), crashlab-v2 (feed). How we count