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Aviator

Spribe logoSpribe· Crash game

FairnessProvably fair
Aviator cover art by Spribe
Illustration, not data

Specs

FairnessProvably fair
Lab statusMeasured
Provider
Spribe logoSpribe
Category
Crash game
Provider claim
97%
Rounds counted
60,119 rounds
Last round recorded
21 Oct 2026, 09:16 UTC
Lab status
Measured
Rounds counted
60,119rounds
Provider claim
Provider claim
What is Provider claim?

Provider claim

The return the game provider states. We show it as a claim and compare it with what we count; we do not repeat it as fact.

97%

Provider source

Last round recorded
21 Oct 2026, 09:16 UTC

Past rounds describe behaviour. They do not predict the next round.

Short answer

No bot can predict Aviator: the Aviator game is designed so each round's crash point is independent of the last, and the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. The provider's stated Aviator RTP, a long-run return, is 97%. Across 60,119 recorded rounds, as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC, the observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out) was 96.2% (95% CI 95.4% to 97.0%).

In 60,119 recorded Aviator rounds (as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC): 4.1% ended below 1.01x (95% CI 4.0% to 4.3%); 9.4% reached 10x (95% CI 9.2% to 9.7%); the highest multiplier recorded was 38,617x† (observed, no interval).

What the game looks like

Aviator gameplay screenshot from the free demo
Screenshot from Spribe's free demo, captured 7 Oct 2026. Shown to explain the game, not to promote it.

Core stats

Each figure carries its sample size, its time and its 95% interval. Median and highest multiplier are facts about the sample, so they carry no interval.

Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)
What is Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)?

Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)

If every round were cashed out automatically at 2x, this is the long-run return measured in the current sample. With a small sample it can differ noticeably from the theoretical value.

96.2%

n
60,119
95% CI
95.4% to 97.0%
as of
21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC
Median crash
What is Median crash?

Median crash

Half of the results fall below this multiplier and half above it. Compared with the highest multiplier, the median is closer to what a typical round is like.

1.92x

n
60,119
as of
21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC
95% CI
Observed in sample · no interval
Instant-crash rate
What is Instant crash rate?

Instant crash rate

The share of rounds that crash at a very low multiplier. It describes the risk in the low tail.

4.1%

n
60,119
95% CI
4.0% to 4.3%
as of
21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC
Highest multiplier
What is Highest multiplier?

Highest multiplier

The highest multiplier seen in the sample. It does not make a similar multiplier any more likely in the next round.

38,617x

n
60,119
as of
21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC
95% CI
Observed in sample · no interval
Sample size
What is Sample size?

Sample size

How many recorded rounds this figure is based on. The more rounds, the narrower the interval around a measured value.

60,119rounds

as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC

Return per round
What is 95% interval?

95% interval

The range that would contain the true long-run value in 95 of 100 repeated samples of this size. It narrows as more rounds are counted.

96.2%

n
60,119
95% CI
95.4% to 97.0%
as of
21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC

Recent rounds

History, not a forecast. Times approximate.

Newest first, 09:16 UTC back to 09:09 UTC

  1. 3.52x
  2. 1.28x
  3. 2.88x
  4. 3.89x
  5. 1.15x
  6. 2.61x
  7. 2.43x
  8. 2.38x
  9. 1.30x
  10. 1.68x
  11. 1.69x
  12. 2.91x
  13. 5.76x
  14. 7.72x
  15. 1.19x
  16. 2.55x
  17. 2.34x
  18. 7.24x
  19. 3.08x
  20. 1.67x

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  • The last 500 recorded rounds of this game

Logging in uses Telegram. The conclusions on this page stay public without it.

Crash multiplier distribution

Where rounds ended, in eight bands. The first band is the instant crash: rounds that ended below 1.01x.

Log in free with Telegram to see the full data

Logging in uses Telegram. The conclusions on this page stay public without it.

Survival curve

The share of rounds that reached each multiplier before ending: RTP at t divided by t, measured at five targets.

RTP by cash-out target

The long-run return if every round were cashed out automatically at the same target.

Crash DNA

Five descriptive bands from the measured sample. A description of behaviour, not a score and not a recommendation.

Milestones

RTP @ 2x and the instant-crash rate at fixed round counts. The 95% interval narrows as rounds come in.

Aviator: RTP @ 2x and the instant-crash rate at each milestone, with 95% intervals
MilestonePeriod (UTC)RTP @ 2x (95% CI)Instant crash (95% CI)
10,000 rounds 6 Oct 2026 – 9 Oct 202696.2% 94.2% to 98.1%4.3% 3.9% to 4.7%
25,000 rounds 6 Oct 2026 – 12 Oct 202696.1% 94.9% to 97.4%4.1% 3.9% to 4.4%
50,000 rounds 6 Oct 2026 – 18 Oct 202696.2% 95.4% to 97.1%4.1% 3.9% to 4.3%
All rounds so far 60,119 roundsas of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC96.2% 95.4% to 97.0%4.1% 4.0% to 4.3%

No sign of a change over time: the 6 blocks of 10,000 rounds agree with each other (test p ≥ 0.5).

Each milestone is fixed once reached; later rounds only add new rows. Past rounds describe behaviour; they do not predict the next round.

Compare with other crash games

Monthly measured report: We counted 21,181 Aviator rounds: measured RTP vs the 97% claim (Oct 2026)

Myth checks

What players believe about Aviator, what the game's design and maths say, and what the lab has counted so far.

  1. Can Aviator be predicted?

    A bot, app or signal group can predict the next result.

    Not true

    No. Games are designed so each round is independent of the last; the lab will test this. Past results should therefore carry no information about the next one. Predictor apps show their hits and hide their misses; some are marketed alongside referral links.

    How the lab will test it Lag-1 autocorrelation of consecutive outcomes and the hit rate of any published 'signal' against recorded rounds.

    Read the full check

  2. Are there hot hours or patterns in Aviator?

    Games pay more at certain hours (jam gacor) or follow readable patterns (pola).

    Not true

    No. The game does not know the time or your history. Any hour or pattern that looks hot is the normal clustering of random results; it should not repeat on fresh data, and the lab will test this.

    How the lab will test it Outcome distribution by hour-of-day compared with a chi-square test across hours.

    Read the full check

  3. Does doubling after a loss work in Aviator?

    Doubling the bet after each loss guarantees a profit.

    Not true

    No. Doubling wins small amounts often and loses everything occasionally. A long enough losing streak always arrives, and the next bet then exceeds the bankroll or the table limit. The house edge stays the same on every bet.

    How the lab will test it Exact loss-streak probabilities plus seeded simulation against recorded outcome frequencies.

    Read the full check

  4. Is Aviator rigged?

    The game is rigged against players beyond its stated return.

    Open: measured here

    This is what the lab measures. Every game has a built-in house edge; the question is whether actual results match the provider's stated return. We publish measured return with its margin of error so you can see the answer, not take ours.

    Measured so far (observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)): 96.2% (95% CI 95.4% to 97.0%) from 60,119 rounds as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC, against 97% provider claim.

    How the lab tests it Measured RTP with a 95% confidence interval compared with the provider claim.

    Read the full check

Rules & math

A plane takes off and its multiplier climbs until it flies away at a random point. Each round's result is fixed in advance by a server seed combined with client seeds, and the seed hash is shown before the round.

What the provider claim implies

If the stated return of 97% holds, the share of rounds that reach a multiplier t is 97% divided by t. These are consequences of the claim, not measurements.

Multiplier tRounds reaching t if the claim holds
1.5x64.7%
2x48.5%
3x32.3%
5x19.4%
10x9.7%

Fairness

Provably fairThe provider publishes how a revealed round can be recomputed from its seeds.

Before play the provider publishes a hash of its server seed. Once the seed is revealed, our tool checks that it matches that commitment. Recomputing the round itself follows the provider's own published steps.

Check a hash commitment

Recompute a round's multiplier from its seeds

How the badges are assigned

Questions

Prediction, patterns, doubling and rigging are answered in the myth checks above.

How often does Aviator crash at 1.00x (instant crash)?
Of 60,119 recorded Aviator rounds (as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC), 4.1% ended below 1.01x, shown as 1.00x: the instant crash (95% CI 4.0% to 4.3%). If the provider's 97% holds and the game follows the standard crash formula (the chance of reaching x is the RTP divided by x), about 4.0% of rounds would end below 1.01x. Past rounds describe behaviour. They do not predict the next round. See how the lab counts it.
How often does Aviator reach 2x and 10x?
48.1% of recorded Aviator rounds reached 2x (95% CI 47.7% to 48.5%, n 60,119) and 9.4% reached 10x (95% CI 9.2% to 9.7%, n 60,119), as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC. If the provider's 97% holds and the game follows the standard crash formula, about 48.5% would reach 2x and 9.7% would reach 10x. These are shares of past rounds, not odds for the next round.
What is the highest multiplier recorded in Aviator?
38,617x†, the highest the lab has recorded for Aviator in 60,119 rounds (as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC). † Observed in recorded rounds, so it has no interval. It is a record of past rounds, not a target or a prediction.
Is Aviator's 97% RTP real?
The provider states 97% (source: https://spribe.co/games/aviator). Measured by the lab on Aviator at a fixed 2x cash-out: 96.2% (95% CI 95.4% to 97.0%) over 60,119 rounds, as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC. The interval and the claim overlap, so the count so far is consistent with it. That is not proof that the game is fair. Observed RTP @ 2x is the return of a fixed 2x cash-out over this sample, not the game's overall RTP.
How do I cite the Aviator data?
Use the reference under Data & citation on this page. Once a figure is published it names the metric, its value, the 95% interval, the exact number of rounds and the UTC as-of time, with the methodology version, the citation id and the page link. The id names a game and a month, not a frozen snapshot, so always quote the figure with its n and as-of. Published figures and fingerprints are under CC BY 4.0. Each UTC day of raw records is sealed with a published SHA-256 fingerprint, so a file released later can be checked against it.
How is Aviator's provably-fair hash checked?
Before a round, Aviator shows a SHA-256 hash of the server seed it has committed to. After the seed is revealed, hash it yourself and compare: a match shows the seed was fixed before the round and not changed afterwards. The multiplier comes from a different hash, the SHA-512 of the server seed joined with the first three players' client seeds, so a SHA-256 hash is never converted into a multiplier. Our Aviator provably fair calculator recomputes the multiplier from the seeds, step by step.

Data & citation

Daily fingerprints

Each UTC day of this game's raw records is sealed after 00:30 UTC the next day, and its row count and SHA-256 fingerprint are published here. The last 30 sealed days are listed.

Day (UTC)RowsSHA-256
4,0584313e0be42b40eaddaad4c7b6a8ade49e0834373b6c7b4a4fee6514f4703972a
4,1345755aa2901514661e82b3be1622c63c88fb983763cb4928f20379e0fda0cff65
4,142943b20469d4ffd8dc52ff9f14669dc09af4c33a3a73cce41798957d84dace331
4,11586d71cf978d29a56031237ea587077b5e340ca198ea8bb56d5936a9fed40fc61
4,1411a972e821671bcbdf8fa16b27b1769462e63e444416f01a6d0d58c064c0d45a6
4,09274144b51104991f843656fbbf861e44fa23adc3b29a53125375afab32bb5ad16
4,141ec37347f47ea41bb2d3c2c894a3f64bde95a1a3feb00d731c230814571a22ca0
4,100b798e806926fdc94e5880088865cde2567744652b7b0ef40eafadc7bee32af6d
4,0941e4efd4891c3ed11acc6fc33902fbf793d797e17ddcf8952d28f29fa7c18bb58
4,123dd11d0fc7c25a5722d71750db47b57fc9bac7727c942a90de3e2b6a5942b586d
4,1358ad25a18b5214dae4eb4198877ada93ec76e751cd66b54962c5cd25109956421
4,1359e59e948ebe6850816b8ee9b911d78e702a6538bee34fbf627ba9607c445e7e2
4,151f8b44a720694547673eb9240c89f73858f88bbc058e41e4bb82496e7785262c9
3,9837c1ce86c6e1e4a503e5c4f5c7a1dbbfa6903d862dee77323c7c09925cf0bf149
88418d9cd0805b9be71f17d89f5293a85b604b77be713ba1d485c20f0bda67c18c9

Raw per-round rows are not published for download. Raw rows are released on request to logged-in users through the data page (Telegram login), up to 5 requests in any 24 hours; a file sent for a day matches its published SHA-256. Raw data on request

Citation id
cw:aviator:2026-10:v1
Cite as
Clash Watchdog (2026). Aviator (Spribe): Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out): 96.2% (95% CI 95.4% to 97.0%), n = 60,119 rounds, as of 21 Oct 2026, 09:18 UTC. Methodology lab-v2.0 (site), crashlab-v1 (feed). cw:aviator:2026-10:v1. https://clashwatchdog.com/games/aviatorObserved RTP @ 2x is the return of a fixed 2x cash-out over this sample, not the game's overall RTP.
Licence
CC BY 4.0. Cite Clash Watchdog and link the dataset.
Methodology
lab-v2.0 (site), crashlab-v1 (feed). How we count