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We counted 21,181 Aviator rounds: measured RTP vs the 97% claim (Oct 2026)

October 2026 edition

Frozen snapshot taken 11 Oct 2026, 22:47 UTC. The figures in this report never change after publication. Current numbers keep moving as rounds come in, on the game page: Aviator game page

Aviator cover art by Spribe
In this report

In one sentence

Clash Watchdog recorded 21,181 rounds of Aviator (Spribe) from 6 Oct 2026 to 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC; at a fixed 2x cash-out the measured return was 95.9% (95% CI 94.6% to 97.3%), against the provider's stated 97%.

Measured return vs the provider's claim

Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out)
What is 95% interval?

95% interval

The range that would contain the true long-run value in 95 of 100 repeated samples of this size. It narrows as more rounds are counted.

95.9%

n
21,181
95% CI
94.6% to 97.3%
as of
11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC

The purple band is the measured return's 95% interval and the line inside it is the measured value. The red mark is the provider's stated 97%. A measurement of past rounds, not a forecast.

The provider states an RTP of 97%.

Provider source: spribe.co

Measured here at a fixed 2x cash-out: 95.9% (95% CI 94.6% to 97.3%) over 21,181 rounds, as of 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC. The interval and the claim overlap, so the count so far is consistent with it. That is not proof that the game is fair.

Observed RTP @ 2x is the return of a fixed 2x cash-out over this sample, not the game's overall RTP.

Instant crash: rounds below 1.01x

Of 21,181 recorded Aviator rounds (as of 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC), 4.1% ended below 1.01x, shown as 1.00x: the instant crash (95% CI 3.8% to 4.4%). If the provider's 97% holds and the game follows the standard crash formula (the chance of reaching x is the RTP divided by x), about 4.0% of rounds would end below 1.01x.

How often rounds reached 2x, 5x, 10x and 100x

Shares of past rounds, each on its own count. They are not odds for the next round.

Share of recorded Aviator rounds that reached each multiplier, with its 95% interval and n
MultiplierRounds that reached it95% CInIf the claim holds ‡
2x48.0%47.3% to 48.6%21,18148.5%
5x19.0%18.5% to 19.5%21,18119.4%
10x9.3%8.9% to 9.7%21,1819.7%
100xNot in this snapshot: the lab's feed had no 100x line.

Each bar runs from 0 to 50% of rounds: purple is the measured share and the white whisker its 95% interval, the dashed red mark is the share if the claim holds.

‡ A model, not a measurement: the share expected if the provider's 97% holds and the game follows the standard crash formula (the chance of reaching x is the RTP divided by x).

Highest multiplier recorded

25,451x†, the highest the lab has recorded for Aviator in 21,181 rounds (as of 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC). † Observed in recorded rounds, so it has no interval. It is a record of past rounds, not a target or a prediction. The lab's rounds had not reached a documented multiplier cap by the snapshot time.

Where rounds ended

Every recorded round falls in one band. The hatched band is the instant crash. The counts are frozen at the snapshot.

n 21,181 binned roundsas of 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC

Whiskers show the 95% interval.

Aviator: where rounds endedShare of 21,181 binned rounds ending in each multiplier band, with 95% intervals. The first band holds results below 1.01x. Crash multiplier distribution, n 21,181: <1.01x 4.1% (95% CI 3.8% to 4.4%, 869 rounds); 1.01-1.5x 31.9% (95% CI 31.2% to 32.5%, 6,750 rounds); 1.5-2x 16.1% (95% CI 15.6% to 16.6%, 3,403 rounds); 2-3x 16.1% (95% CI 15.6% to 16.6%, 3,414 rounds); 3-5x 12.8% (95% CI 12.4% to 13.3%, 2,718 rounds); 5-10x 9.7% (95% CI 9.3% to 10.1%, 2,051 rounds); 10-30x 6.2% (95% CI 5.9% to 6.5%, 1,316 rounds); 30x+ 3.1% (95% CI 2.9% to 3.4%, 660 rounds).
4.1%<1.01x: 95% CI 3.8-4.4
31.9%1.01-1.5x: 95% CI 31.2-32.5
16.1%1.5-2x: 95% CI 15.6-16.6
16.1%2-3x: 95% CI 15.6-16.6
12.8%3-5x: 95% CI 12.4-13.3
9.7%5-10x: 95% CI 9.3-10.1
6.2%10-30x: 95% CI 5.9-6.5
3.1%30x+: 95% CI 2.9-3.4
Aviator: where rounds ended
BandShare95% CIRounds
<1.01x (Instant crash)4.1%3.8% to 4.4%869
1.01-1.5x31.9%31.2% to 32.5%6,750
1.5-2x16.1%15.6% to 16.6%3,403
2-3x16.1%15.6% to 16.6%3,414
3-5x12.8%12.4% to 13.3%2,718
5-10x9.7%9.3% to 10.1%2,051
10-30x6.2%5.9% to 6.5%1,316
30x+3.1%2.9% to 3.4%660

How it was measured

Rounds were read from the provider's own free play-money demo, one row per round as it ended. No money was staked, and no operator account was used.

Every round the feed delivered is counted, in order. Rounds are never sampled, filtered or dropped to shape a figure. The lab records the rounds it sees, not every round ever played: gaps from reconnects follow the clock, not the outcomes.

A round counts as reaching a multiplier when its crash point is at least that multiplier. The fixed 2x cash-out returns twice the stake when a round reaches 2.00x and nothing otherwise; the measured return is the average of those returns.

Methodology lab-v2.0 (site) and crashlab-v1 (feed).

Read the full methodology

How to verify

The raw records behind this report are sealed one UTC day at a time. These sealed days, each with its row count and SHA-256 fingerprint, were published before the snapshot was taken:

Day (UTC)RowsSHA-256
88418d9cd0805b9be71f17d89f5293a85b604b77be713ba1d485c20f0bda67c18c9
3,9837c1ce86c6e1e4a503e5c4f5c7a1dbbfa6903d862dee77323c7c09925cf0bf149
4,151f8b44a720694547673eb9240c89f73858f88bbc058e41e4bb82496e7785262c9
4,1359e59e948ebe6850816b8ee9b911d78e702a6538bee34fbf627ba9607c445e7e2
4,1358ad25a18b5214dae4eb4198877ada93ec76e751cd66b54962c5cd25109956421

3,893 of the 21,181 rounds were recorded on 11 Oct 2026, the day of the snapshot, and were not sealed yet; they are in the figures but not in this table.

The raw rows of a sealed day can be requested on the data page; the file you receive matches its fingerprint above. Request raw data

What this report does not show

  • No prediction: these are shares of past rounds, and none of them says what the next round will do.
  • Pending tests stay pending: the lab has published no result for lag-1 autocorrelation of consecutive rounds or for hour-of-day patterns.
  • One game and one period: the figures describe Aviator from 6 Oct 2026 to 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC. They do not rank games or months. An edition is a dated cut of everything the lab has recorded for the game, not one month's rounds.
  • A free demo, not a real-money table: no operator's real-money table was measured.
  • Not proof that the game is fair, and not a recommendation to play it.

Cite this report

The id below names a frozen snapshot: it always means these exact figures. A game page's own id (such as cw:aviator:2026-10:v1) names a game and a month, and its figures keep moving.

Citation id
cw:report:aviator:2026-10:v1
Cite as
Clash Watchdog (2026). Aviator (Spribe) monthly measured report, October 2026 edition: Observed RTP @ 2x (fixed cash-out): 95.9% (95% CI 94.6% to 97.3%), n = 21,181 rounds, as of 11 Oct 2026, 22:45 UTC. Frozen snapshot cw:report:aviator:2026-10:v1. Methodology lab-v2.0 (site), crashlab-v1 (feed). https://clashwatchdog.com/reports/aviator-2026-10
Licence
CC BY 4.0. Cite Clash Watchdog and link the dataset.

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